Dad's 30-Year Two-Tier Financial Projection

Same model as the conservative 30-yr tool plus a Growth Pool — a 7th bucket earning a higher long-term rate (default 9% APR, S&P-style index returns). Each conservative bucket has a comfort threshold; once the bucket crosses it, new monthly contributions route to Growth Pool while the existing balance stays liquid at 4%. Drawdowns still pull from the conservative side. The idea: keep $140K of House Fund (etc.) liquid for anything that comes up, and put the rest into growth assets where it can compound at index-fund rates over decades. Compare side-by-side with the conservative 30-yr tool. Companion to the 6-year tool and the 2-year decision tool.
Phase 1 · Months 1 to 12 · Now (current high-pace Uber)
Initial pace + vehicle, before scaling back

Phase 1 Uber pace

60 hrs/wk

Phase 1 vehicle

Phase 2 · Months 13–24 · Scaled-back working
Lower Uber pace heading into retirement

Phase 2 transition

month 12
30 hrs/wk
Set transition month to 0 to skip Phase 2 (Phase 1 runs all 24 months).

Phase 2 vehicle

Often the same as Phase 1, but pick differently if Dad switches cars when scaling back.
📜 Schedule E tax module · Real monthly federal tax — click to collapse ▴
Mortgage interest amortization, foreign-rental depreciation, federal brackets, SE tax on Uber, IRMAA
What this does: when "Tax mode" below is set to Schedule E, Dad's monthly federal tax bill is computed properly — gross rental minus mortgage interest minus ADS 30-yr foreign-property depreciation minus property tax + insurance + landscaping + maintenance, then 2026 brackets applied (single filer, 65+ standard deduction), plus SE tax on Uber (Phase 1+2) and IRMAA Medicare surcharge (post-Medicare). Passive Activity Loss carryforward tracked. Set mode to "Schedule E" to see the tax-on numbers in the wealth chart and tables.
Pending Dad's actual purchase + improvement records. Defaults below use Josh's working estimate ($2.3M total cost, ~$1.7M structure basis). Real numbers from Dad will change the depreciation deduction. See Intake_list_for_Dad.md §5.
$1,700,000
Structure (building) cost, excluding land. Working estimate: Dad has ~$2.3M total into the house ($1.5M original + ~$500K addition + ~$300K other improvements). Structure portion: $1.5M × 60% + $500K + $300K = $1.7M. Land is non-depreciable (~$600K). Divided by 30-yr ADS (foreign property per IRS Pub 527) = ~$57K/yr depreciation deduction.
$850,000
5.50%
Starting balance × rate amortizes to natural payoff at m297. Interest portion declines monthly per amortization schedule and is the largest Schedule E deduction in early years. Drops to $0 at the mortgage-payoff month.
100%
% of vehicle operating cost deductible as Schedule C business expense. Phase 1+2 heavy Uber → 90-100% realistic. Phase 3 light Uber on a personal Tesla → 20-40% more realistic.
2026 IRMAA starts at $109K single MAGI. With depreciation, Dad's MAGI generally stays below threshold throughout the projection (IRMAA bracket inflation outpaces nominal MAGI growth). Toggle off to ignore the small early-Phase-3 surcharge.

Additional Schedule E deductions (May 16)

Each of these is BOTH a cash outflow from Dad (reduces savings) AND a Schedule E deduction (reduces taxable rental). Default 0 — set to actual values to factor them in.
0.0%
If Dad uses (or pays Josh as) a property manager. Arm's-length range is 8-12%. Note: if Josh is the PM, the family-level tax savings is usually ZERO or negative because SE tax (15.3%) on Josh's PM income wipes out Dad's tax deduction. Run the math before electing this.
$0
36 mo
Bermuda real-estate commission paid every time a tenant is replaced. Josh mentioned $11,000 per renewal — set that here. Lease cycle defaults to 36 months (3-year leases standard).
$0
Flights, lodging, rental car, 50% of meals when Dad/Josh travels to Bermuda primarily to inspect or manage the rental. Need to document business purpose.
$0
Catchall: advertising, bank fees, professional fees (CPA, attorney), software subscriptions, supplies, home-office allocation, any other ordinary-and-necessary rental expense not captured above.
📊 Tax bill at a glance
Set tax mode to "Schedule E" above to see Dad's projected federal tax bill at key plan months.
Phase 3 · Months 25–72 · Years 3–6 · Post-Uber, optional light work — click to expand ▾
Light Uber, optional car business, lifestyle bumps, health step-down

Phase 3 income sources

30 hrs/mo
Per month, not week. At 30 hrs/mo × $25/hr = $750. Set to 0 for full retirement.
$0/mo
Phase 3 only. Dad rents his car to another driver, takes a cut. Modest setup: $500–$1,200/mo net.

Phase 3 lifestyle

$500/mo
$400/mo
$300/mo
Phase 1 + 2 hold these at $250 / $200 / $150. Phase 3 = the values above.

Phase 3 vehicle

Tesla NEW (0% APR / 72 mo) is the cheapest owned option once Grandma's car is gone. Avis ($1,525 fixed) makes no sense at retirement mileage.

Auto vehicle replacement cycle

84 mo
Every N months, the active Tesla's loan resets (Dad trades up to a new Tesla of the same type). Default 84 mo = 7 years. Slider runs 0–180 (15 yrs); 0 disables auto-replacement (one Tesla for the whole window, post-loan fixed cost stays $375/mo). Only matters when a Tesla is the active vehicle — ignored for Grandma's car or Avis.
Phase 4 · Months 73–360 · Years 7–30 · True retirement — click to expand ▾
Mortgage payoff, health step, lease growth, Opportunity Fund — long-term levers
Phase 4 has no dedicated controls. By definition, this is the band where Dad has fully exited Uber and isn't actively running a car business. He's living on rent + pension + drawdowns + interest on accumulated balances. Everything that varies (vehicle pick, golf/eat/disc, lifestyle, lease renewal growth, auto vehicle replacement, drawdowns) is set in the Phase 3 and Long-Term Levers controls below — Phase 4 inherits all of it. The only thing that changes at m73 is Uber income drops to $0 and the Direct Car Business income (if any) ends.
Want different settings for years 7–30 specifically? Tell me and I'll add Phase 4 sliders. For now this keeps the control panel from getting buried.
Long-term levers · Rare events that move the model
Mortgage payoff, health step, lease growth, Opportunity Fund

Mortgage payoff

month 297
$850K @ 5.5% APR with the current $5,250/mo payment amortizes naturally at m297 (~24.75 years). It's a 5-yr balloon that gets renewed; if the rate changes or Dad pays it down faster, drag this slider. After the payoff month, the $5,250 line disappears from expenses entirely.

Health insurance step

month 31
Default month 31: ~6-month bridge insurance after Uber phase, then ACA/Medicare-style step. Drag to retest.

Upstairs lease renewal + long-term growth

$11,500/mo
1.5%/yr
Lease structure: m1–36 at $11,000 (current 3-yr term), m37–72 flat at the renewal value above (years 4–6), then grows annually starting m73 at the rate above. In real life the lease renews every 3 years — this smooths those step-ups into annual growth. Default 1.5%/yr is conservative.

Opportunity Fund (for IPO / bank flips / side plays)

$100,000
$20,000
30% to Opp
When House crosses the threshold: seed transfers House → Opp once, then residual splits per the % above for the rest of the projection.

📊 Economic assumptions (added Phase 2 audit)

Why these matter: the model previously hardcoded these as 4% / 2.5% / 2.5% / 0%. Phase 2 stress-test found that real-world data suggests more conservative defaults. Drag each slider to see the impact. See Phase2_Stress_Test_Findings_2026-05-15.md for full analysis.
4.00%/yr
Current FDLXX yield is ~3.3% and falling as Fed cuts. Long-run T-bill avg (1928-2024) is 3.3%. The 4% default is optimistic — try 3.0% for realistic, 2.5% for conservative.
2.50%/yr
Applies to FL rent + health + groceries + golf + eating out + discretionary. Recent US CPI (2020-2025) averaged 3.89%; long-run (1928-2024) ~3.0%. Default 2.5% is below both.
2.50%/yr
Applies to land tax + insurance + landscaping + M&I reserve. Bermuda reinsurance market saw +10% in 2024; primary residential insurance tracks similarly. 3.5%+ is realistic post-hurricane-cycle.
0%
Phase 2 flat-rate proxy. The new Schedule E tax module has its own dedicated section above the Phase controls — that's the proper monthly tax calculation. This slider is preserved for backward-comparison only. When tax mode = "Schedule E" the flat drag is ignored.
🚀 Growth Pool · Tier-2 long-horizon allocation — click to expand ▾
Once a bucket crosses its comfort threshold, new contributions route here instead
The big idea, in one sentence: keep a comfort buffer in each bucket at 4% (safe and liquid), and put new contributions above that buffer into S&P-style index funds where they earn ~9% over decades. Each bucket has its own growth sub-pool — same funds, separate accounting.
How the math works (click to expand) ▾

Each month, for each "fundable" bucket (House, Personal, M&I, Trip):

  1. The would-be deposit is calculated normally (House gets the residual; Personal gets $1,500; M&I gets $809+inflation; Trip gets $750).
  2. If the bucket's current balance is below its comfort threshold → deposit goes into the bucket at 4% (conservative tier).
  3. If the bucket is already at or above the threshold → that deposit routes to the bucket's own growth sub-pool at the growth-rate APR (default 9%) instead.

The bucket's existing balance always compounds at 4% regardless, so it slowly creeps above the threshold via interest. That's fine and realistic — it just means a little extra liquidity above the floor.

Drawdowns only pull from the conservative tier. If Dad takes $500/mo of House drawdown, that comes out of the conservative House balance — the growth pool stays untouched. This mirrors how you'd actually manage it: spend from the liquid pile, leave the long-horizon stuff invested.

VRF and Opp Fund are exempt from two-tier routing. VRF must stay liquid (cars get bought outright). Opp Fund is already the speculative bucket — it doesn't need a second speculative layer.

Long-term growth rate

9.0%/yr
Long-term S&P 500 nominal average is ~10%/yr; over any specific 30-yr window it ranges 6–11%. Default 9% is a defensible mid-range. Slider 4% (matches conservative tier — Growth = no benefit) through 12% (aggressive).

Day-one growth allocation

15%
Instead of waiting until the bucket hits its threshold, route this % of every deposit directly to the growth pool starting at month 1. The remaining percentage still builds up the conservative buffer. Once a bucket crosses its threshold, that bucket's deposits go 100% to growth (same as before). Set to 0% to keep the old "fill conservative first, then switch" behavior.

🏠 House Fund — comfort threshold

$140,000
First $140K of House Fund stays at 4% (liquid). After that, monthly residuals route to Growth Pool. 0 = no threshold (always conservative).

💵 Personal Long-term — comfort threshold

$40,000
Keep $40K as a Personal liquid buffer; the rest of the $1,500/mo deposit goes to Growth from then on.

🔧 Maintenance & Improvements — comfort threshold

$50,000
$50K of M&I stays liquid for any maintenance event. Beyond that, the bucket has more than it needs short-term — overflow goes to Growth.

✈️ Trip / Travel — comfort threshold

$25,000
Big travel reserve covers any single major trip. The rest of the $750/mo goes to Growth.
Bucket drawdowns · What if Dad spends some of it — click to expand ▾
Stress-test: subtract spending from each bucket (default collapsed)
All drawdowns default to $0 — turn them on individually to see what happens if Dad actually spends from each bucket. The buckets accumulate via deposits and 4% interest; these sliders subtract spending each month. Opportunity Fund has no drawdown slider since it's meant to keep growing.

🔧 M&I drawdown — episodic maintenance (painting, repairs, etc.)

every 18 mo
$3,000
M&I spending is rarely monthly — it's a paint job one year, a roof patch the next, etc. Default: $3,000 every 10 months (~$300/mo equivalent). Set amount to $0 to disable. Implied monthly avg: $300/mo.

✈️ Trip / Travel drawdown — one-time trip + ongoing travel

Two parts: a one-time lump sum (e.g. the Australia trip) and an ongoing monthly drawdown for regular travel. Both default $0 so the baseline doesn't shift.
One-time lump sum (Australia trip)
month 18
$8,000
Default trip month = m18 (1.5 years from now). Bump amount up to $8K–$15K to model the Australia trip.
Recurring trips (every few months, not monthly)
month 24
every 3 mo
$2,000
Real travel isn't monthly — it's a few times a year. Default: $2,000 every 3 months starting m24 (~$667/mo equivalent, ~$8K/yr). Set amount to $0 to disable. Implied monthly average: $667/mo.

🏠 House Fund drawdown — episodic big-ticket repairs, year 6+ only

Real-world house spending is episodic — a roof replacement every ~10 yrs, an HVAC swap every ~7 yrs, big repaint every ~5 yrs. Default: $40,000 every 60 months (~5-yr cycle, ~$667/mo average). The House Fund stays untouched before m73 because rental income carries the load.
every 60 mo
$40,000
First event fires at m73 + interval (so m133 by default). Implied monthly avg: $667/mo. Set amount to $0 to disable. Interval 0 also disables.
🛡 Emergency floor (tier-2 backstop) — if a House drawdown drops tier-1 below this floor, the gap gets transferred from the tier-2 House growth pool back into tier-1 to keep liquidity. Lets you avoid being cash-poor after a big repair without manually rebalancing.
$25,000
Default $25K reflects "always keep at least $25K liquid for emergencies." Set to $0 to disable — tier-2 pool will never be touched and tier-1 can run to $0 if drawdowns outpace deposits. The primary refill mechanism is still the threshold-redirect (deposits route 100% to tier-1 below threshold), which doesn't sell tier-2 growth assets — this slider is just the backstop for when tier-1 is genuinely depleted.

💵 Personal Long-term drawdown — episodic big-ticket personal spending, retirement only

Same shape as House — episodic, not monthly. Default: $20,000 every 48 months (4-yr cycle, ~$417/mo average). Use cases: a new car (if outside VRF), a big hobby splurge, a once-every-4-years splurge. Starts at m25 (Phase 3).
every 48 mo
$20,000
First event fires at m25 + interval (so m73 by default). Implied monthly avg: $417/mo. Personal LT bucket naturally refills at the $1,500/mo deposit rate (no refill mechanism needed).

🚗 VRF per vehicle event — depreciation gap at each new car

$8,000
Drawn from VRF whenever the active vehicle changes (P1→P2 swap, P2→P3 swap, or each auto-replacement cycle hit). Original VRF design: cover the gap between what an Uber-driven Tesla is worth at sale vs. what's still owed. If VRF can't cover it, the remainder comes from House Fund. Set to ~$15,000 to model significant Uber-era depreciation at the first event.
Combined wealth @ m24
—
End of working years
Combined wealth @ m360
—
End of 30-year projection
Opportunity Fund @ m360
—
triggered at month —
Interest income @ m360
—
"passive" — what balances earn

What this scenario actually looks like — in plain English

Auto-updates as you drag any slider above.
Two years from now (Month 24)
—
Thirty years from now (Month 360)
—

What life actually looks like — by phase

Each phase is a different chapter of Dad's life. Same sliders as above drive these descriptions — drag golf, eating-out, trip, or drawdown values and watch the picture change.
Phase 1 · m1–3 · Hard-working months
—
Phase 2 · m4–24 · Scaled-back working
—
Phase 3 · m25–72 · Post-Uber, lifestyle bumps
—
Phase 4 · m73–360 · True retirement
—

Money in / money out — pick any month from m1 to m360

Drag the slider to scrub to any month, or click a phase button to jump to that phase's midpoint. The income, expenses, and savings allocations all reflect that exact month.
m180 · Year 15

↓ Money in

↑ Money out (living expenses)

Phase 3 typical month (sampled at m48):
Cash income $0 − Cash expenses $0 = $0 cash residual flows into the savings buckets below.
🚀 Plus interest reinvested at m48 (not in the cash flow above — these compound inside the buckets):
Tier-1 conservative interest (4% APR): $0/mo · Tier-2 growth pool interest (9%): $0/mo · Total interest: $0/mo
Total wealth growth this month: $0 = $0 cash residual + $0 reinvested interest − drawdowns this month

The 6 savings buckets — monthly deposits by phase + balance at chosen month

The three dynamic buckets (House, Vehicle Replacement, Opportunity) show contributions for each phase side-by-side, so you can see how they shift as Dad scales back and retires. The three fixed buckets (Personal LT, Trip, M&I) take the same dollar amount every month (M&I grows ~2.5%/yr with house bills) — they're shown as a single value.
m360 · Year 30
Drag to scrub through the 30-year timeline. The phase-deposit columns (P1/P2/P3/P4) stay fixed — they show contributions at the midpoint of each phase. The balance numbers at the bottom of each card (tier-1, tier-2, combined) reflect this picked month.
🏠 House Fund dynamic
P1$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P2$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P3$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P4$0/mo dep+ $0 int
Tier-1 conservative @ m360: $0
🚀 Tier-2 growth pool @ m360: $0 ($0/mo yield)
Combined: $0
💵 Personal Long-term fixed deposit
$1,500/mo deposit
+ interest $0 → $0/mo over 30 yrs
Tier-1 conservative @ m360: $0
🚀 Tier-2 growth pool @ m360: $0 ($0/mo yield)
Combined: $0
🔧 Maintenance & Improvements fixed deposit (+2.5%/yr)
$809 → $0/mo deposit
+ interest $0 → $0/mo over 30 yrs
Tier-1 conservative @ m360: $0
🚀 Tier-2 growth pool @ m360: $0 ($0/mo yield)
Combined: $0
✈️ Trip / Travel Fund fixed deposit
$750/mo deposit
+ interest $0 → $0/mo over 30 yrs
Tier-1 conservative @ m360: $0
🚀 Tier-2 growth pool @ m360: $0 ($0/mo yield)
Combined: $0
🚗 Vehicle Replacement Fund dynamic
P1$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P2$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P3$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P4$0/mo dep+ $0 int
~$0
at month 360
💼 Opportunity Fund dynamic · IPO / side plays
P1$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P2$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P3$0/mo dep+ $0 int
P4$0/mo dep+ $0 int
~$0
at month 360
Each phase value is the contribution at a representative month inside that phase (P1 mid, P2 mid, P3 m48 = 2 yrs into retirement, P4 m180 = 15 yrs into Phase 4 where compounding dominates). If Phase 2 is skipped (transition month = 0 or 24), P2 reads "—". For the Opportunity Fund, any phase that's before the trigger reads "$0"; once the trigger fires inside a phase, that phase reads the post-trigger split contribution. The seed transfer at trigger isn't a monthly contribution — it's reflected in the m360 balance.

Total wealth trajectory (all 6 buckets summed, 360 months / 30 years)

Vertical markers: Phase 2 boundary (if scale-back active), m24 (Phase 3 begins), health step (current slider), m37 (first lease renewal), m72 (Phase 4 begins — no more Uber), mortgage payoff (current slider), m360 (Year 30), plus Opp trigger and vehicle replacements as they happen.

All buckets, month-by-month — combined tier-1 + tier-2 (matches milestone table)

Each line is the total balance of that bucket (conservative tier-1 + growth-pool tier-2 if the bucket has one). The four fundable buckets (House, Personal, M&I, Trip) include their growth pools because that's where most of the long-run wealth lives. VRF and Opp Fund have no tier-2 routing — they show tier-1 only.
House Fund (combined) Personal Long-term (combined) M&I (combined) Trip / Travel (combined) Vehicle Replacement (tier-1 only) Opportunity Fund (tier-1 only)
Why does the House Fund line look like it's bouncing around $150-200K then suddenly climbing? Tier-1 caps near the comfort threshold ($140K default) — once it crosses, new deposits route to the tier-2 growth pool instead. So tier-1 stays flat-ish and the visible growth in the line is mostly the tier-2 pool compounding at the growth rate (9% default). The bigger the gap above $140K, the more the tier-2 pool dominates the total. Drawdowns at m132, m192, m252, m312 cause the dips. Personal Long-term shows the biggest absolute growth because its $1,500/mo deposit funnels heavily into tier-2 once the $40K threshold is crossed early.

Milestone snapshots

Month House Personal M&I Trip VRF Opportunity Total
—

Monthly income picture — including interest from accumulated balances

Real income = rent + pension + Uber + car biz + interest on accumulated savings, where interest comes from both tiers: every $100K of tier-1 (conservative) balance throws off ~$333/mo at 4%, and every $100K of tier-2 (growth pool) balance throws off ~$750/mo at 9%. As balances grow and tier-2 pools fill, interest grows with them. The table below splits the two tiers so you can see exactly where each dollar of "passive income" comes from.
Rent (down + up) Pension Uber Car business (P3) Tier-1 interest (4% on conservative buckets) Tier-2 interest (growth-rate on growth pools)
Month Rent Pension Uber Car biz Tier-1 int
(4%)		 Tier-2 int
(growth)		 Total /mo
—

📖 The whole story in plain English

Auto-generated from the current scenario. Identifies financial-independence milestones and the key transitions in Dad's plan.
How is this calculated?
Income (all three phases):
  • Pension $2,900/mo flat (no COLA).
  • Downstairs rent $3,400/mo base, grows 2%/yr smoothly.
  • Upstairs rent $11,000/mo m1–36, $11,500/mo m37–72 (3-year renewal cycle).
  • Phase 1 + 2 Uber: hours/wk × 4.33 × $25/hr (Phase 1 = initial pace, Phase 2 = scaled-back pace after the transition month).
  • Phase 3 Uber: hours/MONTH × $25/hr.
  • Phase 3 only: optional Direct Car Business flat $/mo net income (Dad rents the car to another driver, takes margin without driving).
Expenses:
  • Mortgage $5,250/mo until the mortgage-payoff slider month (default m297, computed from $850K principal × 5.5% APR amortization with the current $5,250 payment). After that month, $0 mortgage. It's a 5-yr balloon that gets renewed — adjust the slider if the rate changes meaningfully.
  • House bills $1,810/mo base, grows 2.5%/yr. M&I reserve $809.17/mo same growth.
  • Florida rent $2,600, groceries/utilities $1,250, both grow 2.5%/yr.
  • Health: $600/mo Phase 1 + 2, steps to $300/mo at the configurable month (default 31, inside Phase 3).
  • Phase 1 + 2 lifestyle: golf $250, eating $200, discretionary $150. Phase 3 lifestyle: configurable, defaults $500 / $400 / $300.
  • Vehicles: each of the three phases has its own pick (Grandma's car / Avis / Tesla NEW / Tesla USED). Phase 1 + 2 use weekly Uber hours × 4.33 × 30 mph for miles; Phase 3 uses MONTHLY hours × 30 mph. Total monthly vehicle cost = fixed monthly (loan + insurance + reg) + miles × per-mile rate for that vehicle.
  • Tesla loans: NEW = 72 months @ 0% APR, USED = 60 months @ 7% APR. A loan starts the first month its Tesla type becomes the active vehicle. If Dad sells (switches to a different vehicle) and later rebuys the same Tesla type in Phase 3 with a gap in between, that's tracked as a new loan starting in Phase 3. After a loan ends, the monthly fixed cost drops to $375 (insurance + registration only).
Bucket allocations (continuous through both phases):
  • M&I: $809.17/mo, grows 2.5%/yr.
  • Personal Long-term: $1,500/mo, flat throughout.
  • Trip / Travel: $750/mo, flat — becomes general travel fund after Australia.
  • Vehicle Replacement Fund: auto-scales with miles whenever a Tesla is the active vehicle in any phase ($34,000 ÷ 200,000 mi, floor $300/mo). $0 when the active vehicle is Grandma's car or Avis.
  • House Fund: everything left over after the above.
  • Opportunity Fund: $0 until House crosses the trigger threshold. At that month, seed transfers from House → Opp, and the residual splits per the slider.
Interest: 4% APR, compounded monthly on every bucket balance.
Phase 1 math: identical to the 2-year chart at dad-uber-scenarios.pages.dev, so the m24 column here matches that tool's "TRUE net wealth" (minus vehicle loan / asset adjustment, which is dropped at m25 here).